Publication

The economy-wide impact of pandemic influenza on the UK: a computable general equilibrium modeling experiment

Authored by:

Smith, R.D., Keogh-Brown, M.R., Barnett, T., et al

Full Citation:

Smith, R.D., Keogh-Brown, M.R., Barnett, T., et al 2009. The economy-wide impact of pandemic influenza on the UK: a computable general equilibrium modeling experiment. BMJ. 339.

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Additional key concepts from this publication:

The prevention of disease outbreaks can bring additional stability to the national economy as a whole.

Key Evidence: Researchers modeled the costs, using the UK’s 2004 economy, of potential pandemic flu in the UK. Costs of illness alone ranged between 0.5% and 1.0% of gross domestic product (£8.4bn to £16.8bn) for low fatality scenarios, 3.3% and 4.3% (£55.5bn to £72.3bn) for high fatality scenarios, and larger still for an extreme pandemic. Vaccination with a pre-pandemic vaccine could save 0.13% to 2.3% of gross domestic product (£2.2bn to £38.6bn); a single dose of a matched vaccine could save 0.3% to 4.3% (£5.0bn to £72.3bn), and two doses of a matched vaccine could limit the overall economic impact to about 1% of gross domestic product for all disease scenarios.