Researchers modeled the costs, using the UK’s 2004 economy, of potential pandemic flu in the UK. Costs of illness alone ranged between 0.5% and 1.0% of gross domestic product (£8.4bn to £16.8bn) for low fatality scenarios, 3.3% and 4.3% (£55.5bn to £72.3bn) for high fatality scenarios, and larger still for an extreme pandemic. Vaccination with a pre-pandemic vaccine could save 0.13% to 2.3% of gross domestic product (£2.2bn to £38.6bn); a single dose of a matched vaccine could save 0.3% to 4.3% (£5.0bn to £72.3bn), and two doses of a matched vaccine could limit the overall economic impact to about 1% of gross domestic product for all disease scenarios.
Full Citation:
Smith, R.D., Keogh-Brown, M.R., Barnett, T., et al. 2009. The economy-wide impact of pandemic influenza on the UK: a computable general equilibrium modeling experiment. BMJ. 339.
Title of Article: The economy-wide impact of pandemic influenza on the UK: a computable general equilibrium modeling experiment
Author(s): Smith, R.D., Keogh-Brown, M.R., Barnett, T., et al
Publication Year: 2009
Publication Name: BMJ
Publication Volume: 339
Publication Source URL: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2779854/
DOI (Digital Object Identifier): 10.1136/bmj.b4571
Topics: Economics & Return on Investment
Disease Vaccines: Influenza
Countries: United Kingdom
WHO Regions: Europe